Pity the poor prognosticator.
There is trouble in the world today, and trouble here at home. An explosion of terroristic violence in the Middle East. The ongoing war in Ukraine. A U.S. Congress paralyzed by partisan politics.
On the economic front, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index – which predicted the last three recessions with startling accuracy – has been flashing red for nearly a year and a half. The Treasury yield curve – another supposed harbinger of economic decline – has been inverted since July of 2022.
And yet, despite persistent inflation, an aggressive campaign of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the worst selloff ever in the bond market, the economy continues to grow. American consumers continue to spend, corporate earnings in the fourth quarter are off to a strong start, and as of last week, the S&P 500 was up more than 15% year-to-date. What’s a doomsayer to do these days?
I may sound like a broken record, but in times like these it’s important to remember that some things are unknowable, and many things that are knowable aren’t worth knowing. Investors who stay focused on their own goals and behavior are more likely to succeed in the long run. And those who base their decisions on today’s headlines and background noise are likely to remain confused, befuddled, and paralyzed.
Which kind of investor are you?
Premiums for Medicare Part B will be about $10 per month higher in 2024 – and the annual deductible will increase as well. (Reading time: 2 minutes)
Recipients will get a smaller raise next year – this year’s cost-of-living adjustment was 8.79% – thanks to lower inflation. (Reading time: 1 minute)
With the program’s trust fund projected to be exhausted by 2034, some feel it’s time for a new investment strategy. (Reading time: 5 minutes)
Sharply higher interest rates equal sharply lower bond prices. And let’s not forget that this is where the Social Security trust fund is invested. (Reading time: 2 minutes)
And that’s for 2023 alone. That’s why the IRS is gearing up for more audits targeting corporations and wealthy individuals. (Reading time: 4 minutes)
There’s a nationwide shortage of qualified tax preparers. Here’s how to find one. (Reading time: 3 minutes)
There are things you should do – and some you must do – before December 31 to keep your retirement plans on track. (Reading time: 5 minutes)
Yes, depending on your own goals and resources. To improve your chances, answer these 11 questions. (Reading time: 8 minutes)
A short but excellent article on how paying taxes is different once you retire. (Reading time: 4 minutes)
Most of us want to be debt-free one day – but there may be better uses for your extra cash right now than paying down your mortgage. (Reading time: 4 minutes)
Words to the Wise
“I think whatever your view of the world is, you have to invest. The alternative is, I mean, the only way to guarantee you will have nothing at retirement is to invest nothing along the way.”
– John Bogle
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